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2012 technology predictions

It’s 2012 so that means it is time to post my predictions for the year.

  1. Facebook meets its match. However, Facebook will not die in 2012. This is a planning phase prediction. Whoever will ultimately oust Facebook from the throne of social networking will spring up today and prey on FB’s on vulnerabilities.
  2. Google+ finds its niche. Clearly, G+ does not fit the description to be the victor in the above scenario. However, Google has stuck gold with its Google+ network. The granular control and closed ecosystem blended with the open ability to follow and make connections with “circles” means it has it’s place in the social media world. It will focus on business and niche hobbies/interests for like-minded people to meet each other, where Facebook focuses on people who already know each other.
  3. SOPA changes our life. It goes through in a version not too dissimilar from its current iteration and shuts down a large enough portion of the Internet that people actually notice. Law gets repealed by Summer of 2013 if another Democrat takes office - March, if a Republican steps in.
  4. Microsoft is the Apple of 1997. Windows 7 didn’t do as well as they hoped since it became little more than a huge Vista service pack/patch. Windows 8 on the desktop looks like the phone. People want a desktop to act like a desktop. Windows gains no market share, but actually loses some. 
  5. Sony takes a bath and tries to not become Sega. Xbox is the clear winner here. The next generation consoles make a difference. Sony needs to announce something specific and huge THIS year or Xbox takes the console market for heavy gamers and average gamers. Nintendo keeps the kids.
  6. The shift in TV begins. Linear programming becomes less relevant as more things go online and on demand. Items like Roku, Boxee and AppleTV proliferate this year as prices come down and bandwidth goes up.
  7. Apple settles into life after Steve, and it’s not awesome. The culture won’t change. Cool systems, devices and tons of innovation will prevail. However, without Steve at the helm, things will be different. Just as dedicated, not as magical. Keynotes are less attended/watched. Sales, while high, aren’t as high as before and the mania slips a little. Hopefully they stop the downward trend before it’s too late.
  8. Oh… and JavVig Media, LLC blows up, gets funded, finds a 6x-8x valuation and gets bought. That last one is wishful thinking.

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(Source: throwboy)

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Life after Steve: What’s next for Apple?

Yesterday’s news of Steve Jobs tendering his resignation as a bombshell. Nobody saw that coming - at least not so suddenly without warning and certainly not two weeks before a major announcement. My focus on yesterday’s article was to speak about my path to Apple and the impact Steve Jobs’ vision made on my life.

What does the face of Apple and its strategy look like after Steve? There are so many things to consider. The bottom line is that it won’t be the same - no matter what. Apple was Steve’s baby. It was his creation and vision. He had help along the way, of course. And his vision is shared, but that guy was so far in the weeds in day to day operations, ensuring every last detail was precise and perfect that it’s impossible for anyone else to keep that up.

If anyone can do it, Tim Cook can. He’s been Steve’s right hand and, presumably, knows the plans Steve had in mind better than anybody else. He was the COO and the interim CEO during Steve’s medical absences. With Jobs sitting as the Chairman of the board of directors at Apple, employees and executives will have near regular access to him and he can clearly be involved in many decisions. I can only imagine that the close bond he’s formed with his executive team - Jonny Ive, Scott Forstall, Phil Schiller, etc will continue to serve Apple well as they garner opinions and advice from him going forward.

Who takes Tim’s spot? I’d be happy to be the new COO, but I already have a job. So who is going to do it? We all know that Steve didn’t do it by himself and neither can Tim. So whoever is chosen to be his second in command will be important. 

As we saw yesterday, Apple’s shares fell in after hours trading immediately following. People are nervous. We have come to expect a certain level of quality from Apple and, frankly, haven’t seen Tim pull it off just yet. The iPhone 5 is around the corner, as best as we can tell, the new iPad should be starting production, with or with our Samsung’s help. It’s a crucial time for Apple.

So what will happen? Things will be shaky for Apple for a while. Their share price will fluctuate heavily. It will sell based on nervousness and people will swoop in on a good deal an push it up. Lawsuits will drive it down and the iPhone 5 will push it back up. Every product will be met with “Steve could have done it better” initially. What people don’t realize is that Apple doesn’t make snap decisions. Anything you see for the next year or two has already been in the works.

With the new headquarters on the way, an iPhone around the corner, typical refresh schedule for the rest of their products, and a CEO who has had 6 months to unofficially get used to the position before assuming the role int he face of shareholders. The development of the next iPhone is completed so Tim gets to ride that out. He’s already publicly addressed his team at Apple and promised that the culture will not change. It’s always was, is and forever will be Steve’s house.

At the end of the day, we’ll have a different guy on stage, but the change will be transparent to the user due to the culture and ecosystem built in that company and the team of incredibly talented people still there that believe in the way Apple does things.

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iSteve is moving out

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As far back as I can remember, I was a Microsoft man. It was MS-DOS, then Windows 3.1, then 95 through XP. I wouldn’t own an iPod. I wouldn’t dare put Quicktime on a computer. If you sent me an .MOV it wouldn’t get watched. I was an Apple hater in every sense of the word. I wasn’t a legitimate hater based on anything. It was blind. Truthfully, I wasn’t even a Microsoft fanboy. I didn’t like them either in later years, but I’ll be damned if I go to a Mac. Pfft.

Then came Windows Vista. My media center PC that was purchased from Dell didn’t work right and Vista told me that most of my internal components weren’t authorized even though they shipped in the PC. That was early 2007. What to do? I clung to XP with all my might and shelved the Vista system.

Enter the iPhone. I didn’t want it and nearly got a Blackberry to replace my Palm Treo 650. I was legitimately torn. One seemed cool (iPhone) and one was not Apple (Blackberry). So that was the dividing line. In the end I felt something revolutionary in the iPhone and waited in line for hours upon hours at one store while calling other stores in the area, trying to ensure I got one. As it turns out I did and drove 45 minutes back home with a phone that did nothing while waiting to be activated via iTunes on my Windows XP machine. I fell in love immediately. It was sleek and sexy and totally new. There was nothing like it. Everywhere I went, people stopped in their tracks and said, “Is that? Can it be? Do you have an…. iPhone?”

Like many other users, the success of the iPhone got me wondering. What else has Apple been up to while I was busy hating them? WOAH. Their computers are sharp looking. What’s that? Microsoft is stopping support for XP? Now what? I decided it was time to buy a MacBook Pro while I had a healthy XP desktop and XP laptop. That should make the transition to OS X Leopard easy enough.

I never looked back. Since then I’ve gotten a Time Capsule, the iPhone 3G/3GS/4, 27” iMac, iPad, iPad 2, and other assorted peripherals. Now people tell me that I’m a fanboy for Apple. Untrue. I’ve been swung to that side and if another company makes better products, I’ll go to them. For now, Apple products fit my life.

There are many keys to Apple’s gigantic success and their comeback from the brink of death to be the world’s most valuable technology company. Follow the ideas, creativity, innovation and startup mentality right to the top – Steve Jobs. From a young kid in a garage to the iPad 2 (and soon to be iPhone 5) Steve has shaped that company and changed the way we interact with those machines. His vision is second to none.

Bill Gates’ edict was a PC on every desktop. The Microsoft behemoth was, admittedly, about quantity and ubiquity. When Walt Mossberg of the WSJ’s All Things Digital asked Steve Jobs, at the D8 conference, how he felt about losing the desktop war to Microsoft, Steve did his clenched hands, index fingers to his lip formatting the most poignant response pause that we’ve all come accustomed to. Finally he said, “We never saw it as a war, that’s probably why we lost. We just want to make great products for people.” Nothing against Microsoft, or even for Apple, in response to that. Different mentalities. Different approaches. Clearly it worked well for both for many years.

Whether you love or hate Apple, you have to respect what Jobs has done. Apple borrowed $150 million from Microsoft to stay afloat and not file for bankruptcy just about 10 years ago and look at them now. Granted Steve was not at the helm for a portion of that, but he grew them from nothing and brought them back from the brink of death to where they are today. The explosion started with the iPod.

I can tell you stories about Steve and his attention to detail, his need for perfection, his inability to put something out that he didn’t believe in 10000%. I can make you love and hate him at the same time, but always respect him for his dedication and work ethic. He’s claimed to have been a monster by some and a god by others.

Whatever he was, he had vision. He innovated. Today he resigned. The shape of the computer industry is changed forever by his presence and will change again by his exit. I can cry all day long, but despite rumor, Steve is human and this day was to come sooner or later. He battled back from a liver transplant and pancreatic cancer. He showed up on stage looking frail for the iPad 2 announcement. The crowd went berserk and people cried. He is a hero to many. He always put that company first, at times, to the detriment of his own health.

I can only imagine that today’s announcement of his resignation has to do with his health and I hope this does not mean the worst for him. He always said that when the day came that he could no longer fulfill his obligations to the company, he would resign and that day has come. He plans to, if Apple will have him (yeah right who wouldn’t?) stay on as the chairman of the board of directors and an Apple employee. I think this means many people will still look to him for direction and guidance and ideas without the full weight of the company on his shoulders. Maybe he will get healthy again that way while still being engaged in Apple’s future and success.

Fear not about the future of the company. Everyone knew it would be rocky immediately after he left, but we are also confident in his replacement. Former COO, now CEO, Tim Cook is in the big chair. He’s been Steve’s right hand in many ways for a long time and he is the right man for the job in Steve’s absence and filled in during the medical absences. Make no mistake; Tim Cook is not going to forget where he came from or the man that helped him get to where he is today. I am sure Steve will be in the loop, even if informally between colleagues and friends. Be that as it may, it just won’t be the same. There is no replacing Steve, but there is life after Steve.

I have to say that I am very proud of the social media community at this moment. With all the news and tweets and updates about this momentous occasion, not one person has made a crass, celebratory remark. Nobody is wishing ill will on the man. Even the haters are showing respect for accomplishment of Steve Jobs if not for the brand as a whole.

Congratulations to Steve on a lifetime of wondrous achievement and good luck in the future wherever it may take you. I know you won’t sit idly by at home, that’s for sure. And finally, thank you for all you’ve done. You are a Beatles fan and your shared influence among your peers and the future makes you the technological Beatles of our generation. Good luck to Tim Cook. Remember the vision, continue the culture, see you on September 7th.

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Steve Jobs took another leave of absence

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What’s up Apple’s sleeve?

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- DirtyPhonebook.com
- Steve Jobs vs. Gawker - email session
- I’m quitting

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2 May 2010 - Weekly Wrap Up #12

- Death of a media
- Steve hates Flash
- I couldn’t resist