It’s 2012 so that means it is time to post my predictions for the year.

1. Facebook meets its match. However, Facebook will not die in 2012. This is a planning phase prediction. Whoever will ultimately oust Facebook from the throne of social networking will spring up today and prey on FB’s on vulnerabilities.
2. Google+ finds its niche. Clearly, G+ does not fit the description to be the victor in the above scenario. However, Google has stuck gold with its Google+ network. The granular control and closed ecosystem blended with the open ability to follow and make connections with “circles” means it has it’s place in the social media world. It will focus on business and niche hobbies/interests for like-minded people to meet each other, where Facebook focuses on people who already know each other.
3. SOPA changes our life. It goes through in a version not too dissimilar from its current iteration and shuts down a large enough portion of the Internet that people actually notice. Law gets repealed by Summer of 2013 if another Democrat takes office - March, if a Republican steps in.
4. Microsoft is the Apple of 1997. Windows 7 didn’t do as well as they hoped since it became little more than a huge Vista service pack/patch. Windows 8 on the desktop looks like the phone. People want a desktop to act like a desktop. Windows gains no market share, but actually loses some. 
5. Sony takes a bath and tries to not become Sega. Xbox is the clear winner here. The next generation consoles make a difference. Sony needs to announce something specific and huge THIS year or Xbox takes the console market for heavy gamers and average gamers. Nintendo keeps the kids.
6. The shift in TV begins. Linear programming becomes less relevant as more things go online and on demand. Items like Roku, Boxee and AppleTV proliferate this year as prices come down and bandwidth goes up.
7. Apple settles into life after Steve, and it’s not awesome. The culture won’t change. Cool systems, devices and tons of innovation will prevail. However, without Steve at the helm, things will be different. Just as dedicated, not as magical. Keynotes are less attended/watched. Sales, while high, aren’t as high as before and the mania slips a little. Hopefully they stop the downward trend before it’s too late.
8. Oh… and JavVig Media, LLC blows up, gets funded, finds a 6x-8x valuation and gets bought. That last one is wishful thinking.

Less than two weeks after Sony restored the Playstation Network from 28 days of downtime due to a hacker attack, they have more news… it has happened again. This time, however, the Playstation Network is fine. 8,500 accounts for subscribers to Sony Music Entertainment Greece have had their information stolen. 

The sites are free so no credit card information was stolen but usernames, passwords, email addresses and phone numbers were. The websites got taken down by Sony immediately following the attack and will stay down pending a security review.

While the attack is not large in terms of the number of people affected or the actual information stolen, this is the third in a short time and te hits keep on coming. On April 20th, the account information for 77 million users got stolen from the Playstation Network attack. Then Sony Online Entertainment had 24.6 million users get information stolen. 

In addition to the Sonly Music Entertainment Greece incident, Dow Jones newswire reports that Sony found small levels of unauthorized access in Indonesia and Thailand and, while not exploited, they found vulnerabilities pages for Sony Music Japan.

The cost to Sony is, so far, over $170 million. Anyone can imagine that the cost in trust of the users and credibility of Sony is even greater.

It’s not just a movie title. It is how long the Playstation Network (PSN) was down after hackers breached security. The network was hacked and came down for a brief time and came back for an even briefer time only to be taken down by Sony again for further repairs and rebuilding. Many registered PSN users received emails of potential leaks of personally identifiable information (PII). Even former customers, such as myself, were warned that our data may have been stolen.

This is a devastating blow to what was already, arguably, the second tier online gaming platform; second to Microsoft’s Xbox Live ecosystem. Online gaming has become a critical component for video games in recent years with many titles focusing their efforts on the online multiplayer facet of the game. A recent hit title, Homefront, has a very short campaign (single player story) mode that is almost obligatory and rarely preferred to the online component.

Microsoft and Sony have always had different approaches to the multiplayer world. Microsoft sports a paid model that brings users together in a closed ecosystem and allows users to play, chat, watch movies together or browse each other’s game library and play habits and has been wildly successful with it. Sony on the other hand was more disjointed for many years by not putting everything under one virtual roof. Their network was free and some cames supported it while others did not. Some games charged individually and others were free. There was no aggregation point. Within the last two years, the PSN created a virtual world where avatars could “live” and do things such as shop, go to an carnival style arcade or buy items for their home a la The Sims, although that was short lived.

While no time is a good time to have your network taken down, some times feel worse. The hit game Call of Duty: Black Ops released new multiplayer maps and even though the Xbox 360 has an arrangement with Activision to get them first and they haven’t dropped for the Playstation 3 yet, this outage has created a high level of skepticism among PS3 owners. Many have moved to the Xbox to get the maps early… and reliably.

Calls to several local Gamestop stores in the area have come back with the same answers - Sony Playstation 3 sales have slowed to a crawl and PS3 trade-ins in favor the the Xbox 360 are at an all time high. Gamestop is even offering huge deals for its rewards members as PS3 inventories are mounting.

Could this have happened to the Xbox Live network? Of course. As any network security professional will tell you, nobody is invulnerable to attack. Could this also have been prevented? Quite possibly. The going story is that Sony made a bold move to allow a new hit game - Portal 2 - to be played cross-platform between the PS3 and the PC. Historically, Xbox, PS3 and PC gamers were limited to play within their own platform. Allowing PC users interconnectivity with the PS3 network highlighted some security flaws that quickly led to exploitation and the subsequent 28 day downtime.

Sony understands the sweeping effects to their user base and user’s confidence in the network and is acknowledging that with a “Welcome Back” customer appreciation program. The official Playstation blog describes the program like this:

This package will be made available to all existing registered PlayStation Network and Qriocity users in North America (US and Canada), and will be made available shortly after we have fully restored the service. More specific details about these offers and eligibility requirements will be posted as the services go live.

All PlayStation Network customers can select two PS3 games from the following list. The games will be available for 30 days shortly after PlayStation Store is restored and can be kept forever.

• Dead Nation
• inFAMOUS
• LittleBigPlanet
• Super Stardust HD
• Wipeout HD + Fury

For PSP owners, you will be eligible to download two PSP games from the following list. The games will be available for 30 days shortly after PlayStation Store is restored and can be kept forever.

• LittleBigPlanet (PSP)
• ModNation Racers
• Pursuit Force
• Killzone Liberation

• A selection of “On Us” rental movie titles will be available to PlayStation Network customers over one weekend, where Video Service is available. Those titles will be announced soon.
• 30 days free PlayStation Plus membership for non PlayStation Plus subscribers.
• Existing PlayStation Plus subscribers will receive an additional 60 days of free subscription.
• Existing Music Unlimited Premium Trial subscription members will receive an additional 30 days of free premium subscription.
• Additional 30 days + time lost for existing members of Music Unlimited Premium/Basic subscription free of charge for existing Premium/Basic members.
• To welcome users Home, PlayStation Home will be offering 100 free virtual items. Additional free content will be released soon, including the next addition to the Home Mansion personal space, and Ooblag’s Alien Casino, an exclusive game

Will this initiative erase the even from the minds of the skeptics? It would be foolish to say yes and I don’t think that is even Sony’s intent. This is nothing more than an admission of fault, apology, and effort to pay reparations to affected users.

It is a smart move by Sony and will hopefully have the intended effect of restoring the the goodwill of the gaming arm of the electronics giant.

You want to make changes to Android all willy nilly? Google says NO!

Tons of speculation about WWDC and a new iPhone lately

I meant to have this out before the new year hit, but alas, the hectic schedule of the holiday season got the better of me.

1. 3D TVs have been all the rage lately, from the perspective of the manufacturer. The price of the TVs, price of the glasses, limited content and the fact that you even need glasses have put a damper on sales. The good news is that the proliferation of 3D TVs have driven down the price of standard LED TVs.
   Prediction: 3D disappears this year until the technology is more affordable, usable and universal.
2. Microsoft capitalizes on the success that is the Kinect (the motion based gaming style for the Xbox 360) and ushers in a new era of gaming (that the Nintendo Wii barely scratched the surface of). Sony releases the Move for the PS3 which gives users something to hold, like the Wii but it is more precise than the Kinect. Users of both platforms are going nuts for these (especially the Kinect, due to its freedom).
   Prediction: More Xbox games show up in the purple case and the entire gaming experience moves towards hands free. You do what? Hold a controller still? Oh, and Steve Ballmer keeps his job.
3. Users are not only playing with the Kinect; they are ripping it apart. Scores of videos are appearing all over the web showing new uses for the camera/sensor system. Some are recreating images in live 3D renderings and others have created Minority Report style interfaces.
   Prediction: Tom Cruise and a pre-cog run through your backyard while you effortless copy files to pieces of glass with your hands. Interactive displays become a reality.
4. Apple’s release of a desktop app store shows 1 million downloads in the first day. Their photo editing program, Aperture, sells for $80 as opposed to the $199 retail price on the shelf.
   Prediction: A desktop app store shows up for Windows as well. Software inventories in retail locations begin to thin like the hair on Ballmer’s head.
5. Tablets are everywhere. First it was the iPad, followed closely by a slew of Android based devices. The battle is now over platform, operating system, and size. 
   Prediction: Many Android based tablets disappear leaving only the cream of the crop. Apple releases iPad 2 in the spring of this year.
6. Every year since 2007 Apple has shown us a new iPhone. 2007 and 2010 were the 2 biggest iterations. It nearly goes without saying that iPhone 5 will be announced at Worldwide Developers Conference with the release to follow in late June or early July.
   Prediction: The jump in feature set is better than from 3G to 3GS but not nearly as rich as the jump between the 3GS and the iPhone 4.
7. We are generating more and more data on a consistent basis. Storing and securing that data is becoming more difficult, even with the huge hard drives. Everyone needs redundant backups and accessibility.
   Prediction: Companies and products like Drobo, Netgear ReadyNas and HP MediaSmart drop in price to give redundant RAID arrays for home users and websites like Mozy and Crash Plan become more popular around the web.
8. Facebook is trying to hold onto its key players. It has been giving out tons of private stock options. The SEC requires them to stay below a certain number of people and shares before forcing them to disclose more details about their finances. Facebook has been holding just below that number.
   Prediction: Facebook can’t afford to stay there anymore. They break the cap, disclose their info, hold an IPO.

 It’s that time of year again. Let’s take a look at the Top Ten Tech Toys that everyone wants under the tree on Christmas morning. 

1. Kinect for Microsoft Xbox 360. This new motion-based addition to the Xbox is sweeping the console gaming market. It is more precise than the Nintendo Wii and doesn’t require you to hold anything while you play. Plus you can interact with the entire console by moving and speaking. Microsoft has clearly redefined its role in the console market with this additional piece. Price: $149.99
2. Apple iPad. Many people were waiting for news of a second-generation tablet from Apple, although that was always unlikely. In the meantime, the device has recently been updated to support wireless printing, streaming of audio/video to other devices and, of course, multi-tasking. The latest update takes it from a novelty gadget to serious productivity device. Price (range): $499 - $829 based on size of 16, 32, or 64 gb and with or without 3G capability
3. Speaking of streaming audio/video, AppleTV was redesigned this year. It fits in the palm of your hand and requires two wires. One is for power and the other is HDMI (it does not support composite or component connection). You can rent movies and TV shows from iTunes in full 1080p resolution. Additionally, you can connect to your Netflix account, YouTube, Flickr and more. Share movies from your computer or stream from an iPhone/iPad using the new AirPlay system. Price: $99
4. Samsung Galaxy Tablet. If you haven’t adopted Apple products into your life or simply love the Android platform then one of the new Android tablets may catch your eye. The Samsung Galaxy seems to stand out among the rest. At 7” it is portable although there is discussion about the usability of something that size. The spec sheet reads: Cortex A8 1 GHz processor, 512 MB of RAM, 16 (or 32) gb of internal memory with upgrades via SD slot, 3-megapixel camera w/ flash and front-facing 1.3-megapixel camera, WiFi and 3G connectivity. It does things the iPad doesn’t do but has it’s limitations as well. Be wary of the Android 2.2 (Froyo) operating system it runs. Google claims it is not meant for tablets but seems stable so far. Price: $599
5. GoogleTV. If you’re in the market for a new TV, Sony is making models with Google TV embedded. If you are not, you can buy a stand-alone unit with built-in Blu-Ray player. GoogleTV resembles AppleTV except it incorporates full web browsing and specific content from network stations formatted for the environment. The UI is slow and not very responsive and the content is not being delivered as q quickly as Google had hoped. It definitely has room to grow. Price: $399
6. Sony Bloggie Touch. This 12.8-Megapixel digital camera measures 2” by 4” by half an inch. It sports a 3” touch screen and will hold up to 2 hours of HD video and will connect directly to your HDTV with a mini HDMI output. Bloggie software uploads directly to sites like Facebook and YouTube. Price: $179
7. iPod Nano. Earlier this year Apple redesigned their iPods but the most drastic change was the Nano. It is now a small, sleek, square with a multi-touch touchscreen that resembles an iOS device. In fact, it runs a special version of iOS. It is roughly 1.5” square and weighs less than an ounce with a built-in belt clip. This device is meant to be taken with you on runs without letting you know it’s there. Price: $149 (8 gb) or $179 (16gb)
8. Samsung 3D TV. The 55” 3D LED TV has amazing picture quality and provides better 3D experience than I have found in movie theaters - there is none of that blurriness at the edges. In the box comes this less than 1” thick TV but no glasses so be prepared to shell out more money to use the 3D functions. In the meantime, enjoy 1080p 240Hz crystal clear motion. This is also Internet connectable giving you access to YouTube, Napster, Facebook, and BestBuy’s own CinemaNow (online rental service). Keep in mind that in addition to the glasses, you’ll beed a 3D Blu-Ray player, and high speed HDMI cable at a minimum. Price: $3299
9. Samsung LED TV. For the non-3D lover, the Samsung 6300 is the best LED deal out there. The screen is 55” (54-5/8” to be exact) with 120Hz refresh rate and a 4,000,000:1 contrast ratio. It is also Internet connectable. This is the TV I have had my eye on for personal use. 3D TVs have dropped the prices of these standard LED models significantly. Price: $2500
10. Last but not least, the hottest new laptop to arrive this year - the MacBook Air. I recently had the pleasure of using one. The solid state drive inside makes it turn on instantly (much like an iPhone/iPad). The 13” has the same 1440x900 resolution of a 15” MacBook Pro. It is small and light and really performs with a Core 2 Duo processor and 2 gb of RAM under the hood. Battery life seems to be about 5 hours on the 11” and 7 hours on the 13” model. The 11” may be a little too small to be truly usable for more than the purpose of a netbook and a netbook is a third of the price, but the 13” is beautiful. Price (range): $999 - $1599 (plus customization if needed)

Happy Holidays!

2 May 2010 - Weekly Wrap Up #12

- Death of a media
- Steve hates Flash
- I couldn’t resist 

I often get questions asked to me directly about gadgets and technology. Below is a response to one such question. The exact question was:

“Are e-books worth the money? My wife reads 2 books per week.”

Well I guess it depends on what you’re reading them on. The iPad, for example, could be cool but it’s like reading on a screen which is an issue on the eyes.

Now an actual e-book reader like a Kindle, Nook or the Sony has what’s called e-ink. This is just an alignment of particles to represent a page. It looks like paper which is easier on the eyes, causing less strain. Additionally, since it’s not a backlit LCD, OLED or IPS screen, the battery life is excellent.

Real books have the price of the book only but they take up room, they’re heavy, they get worn, etc.

The e-book reader has the expense of the unit up front but you have no clutter whatsoever and you can store tons of books on one. The books are generally a little cheaper on a device and some are even free. Again, you have to pay for the device itself. The Kindle by Amazon, for instance, keeps the books on it or in their database. So you pay once and read. If you delete it midway through you can re-download again later for free and it even saves your page. Some have built-in dictionaries or a thesaurus or allow you to make margin notes or highlight certain parts.

The libraries are awesome so almost any book you want can be found. I would do a cost to value analysis. How much are you spending in books? How badly do you want the physical copy? Are you prepared to spend the money on the device? Weigh both sides and see what fits you best. I would have bought a Kindle but I think I’ll wait for an iPad. It’s an e-book reader plus all of the other functions it serves. The lack of e-ink technology sucks but it’s not a deal breaker for me.