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2012 technology predictions

It’s 2012 so that means it is time to post my predictions for the year.

  1. Facebook meets its match. However, Facebook will not die in 2012. This is a planning phase prediction. Whoever will ultimately oust Facebook from the throne of social networking will spring up today and prey on FB’s on vulnerabilities.
  2. Google+ finds its niche. Clearly, G+ does not fit the description to be the victor in the above scenario. However, Google has stuck gold with its Google+ network. The granular control and closed ecosystem blended with the open ability to follow and make connections with “circles” means it has it’s place in the social media world. It will focus on business and niche hobbies/interests for like-minded people to meet each other, where Facebook focuses on people who already know each other.
  3. SOPA changes our life. It goes through in a version not too dissimilar from its current iteration and shuts down a large enough portion of the Internet that people actually notice. Law gets repealed by Summer of 2013 if another Democrat takes office - March, if a Republican steps in.
  4. Microsoft is the Apple of 1997. Windows 7 didn’t do as well as they hoped since it became little more than a huge Vista service pack/patch. Windows 8 on the desktop looks like the phone. People want a desktop to act like a desktop. Windows gains no market share, but actually loses some. 
  5. Sony takes a bath and tries to not become Sega. Xbox is the clear winner here. The next generation consoles make a difference. Sony needs to announce something specific and huge THIS year or Xbox takes the console market for heavy gamers and average gamers. Nintendo keeps the kids.
  6. The shift in TV begins. Linear programming becomes less relevant as more things go online and on demand. Items like Roku, Boxee and AppleTV proliferate this year as prices come down and bandwidth goes up.
  7. Apple settles into life after Steve, and it’s not awesome. The culture won’t change. Cool systems, devices and tons of innovation will prevail. However, without Steve at the helm, things will be different. Just as dedicated, not as magical. Keynotes are less attended/watched. Sales, while high, aren’t as high as before and the mania slips a little. Hopefully they stop the downward trend before it’s too late.
  8. Oh… and JavVig Media, LLC blows up, gets funded, finds a 6x-8x valuation and gets bought. That last one is wishful thinking.

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Louie discusses the Motorola Droid 4 and HP hanging onto WebOS

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Louie showed up to help. Not surprisingly, he wasn’t of much help at all.

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Social networks show anger at Apple after WWDC keynote

Since the keynote at WWDC, the world technology audience has been divided. Some fans have been excited for all the new features, while others are looking for every hole and flaw in Apple’s logic and plans. A recent tweet said, “Apple just pissed off: Dropbox, Sparrow, Instapaper, Readability, Remember the Milk, Facebook, RIM, & the carriers. Well done.” Let’s look at each item on the list.

- Dropbox. This in reference to AirDrop, but there are some notable differences. Dropbox’s purpose is to sync files across an individual’s machine. Place a file in a Dropbox folds and nearly instantly, that file is available on every Dropbox enabled computer/devices. You can, however, share folders with other Dropbox users to move files between people. That is not the common use case or intention of Dropbox. AirDrop, which is more like Receivd, allows users to send files to one another in a peer-to-peer fashion. AirDrop is Mac platform specific, Dropbox is not. There is no competition. I will use AirDrop to sling files among common Mac users, Receivd to send files to alternate platform users, and Dropbox to keep my own files in sync.

- Sparrow. It is a simple, minimalist mail client available for $9.99, from a year old startup. Apple updated its own native mail client. Does anyone expect Apple to ignore its own products. At the $10 price point, Sparrow loyalists are likely to stay and even draw new users, but Apple’s allegiance is to its own native applications. Other [more] popular mail clients include - Microsoft Entourage (pre-Microsoft OfficeforMac2011), Microsoft Outlook (current), and Postbox.

- Instapaper/Readability. Reading list in iOS 5 is nearly identical to Instapaper in functionality. There is nothing to say here except that if Instatpaper innovates or updates, they will keep their solid user base. Instapaper may actually be better than the built-in reading list function. The same goes for Readability.

- Remember the Milk. The angry Twitter user chose Remember the Milk as the to do list to defend against iOS. Meanwhile, Things has been leading the way with an iPhone app, iPad app (different from iPhone) and Mac desktop app. Things’ ability to set tasks, due dates, priorities and projects that houses tasks make it indispensible. Remember the Milk incorporates iCal or Google calendar which is handy. Apple improved on the provess by using GPS as well. Now when you walk into the grocery store you are reminded about the items you need so you will remember the milk even if you don’t use Remember the Milk.

- Facebook. There’s no doubt that Apple snubbed Facebook on Monday with the announcement of Twitter integration and the deep rooted connection between it and iOS 5. Users will be able to tweet from within any application native to iOS, making it accessible constantly. Facebook has not received the same treatment. However, is Facebook pissed off? Not likely. With 500 million users, they are not hurting for people. Additionally, there is no proof or reason to believe that Facebook even wanted to be involved. The Facebook for iPhone app has not been heavily updated and there is no official app for iPad. Facebook is very clear about their mobile vision and it is not platform dependent. 

- RIM. This can only be attributed to the new iMessages feature in iOS 5 and it’s being compared to BlackBerry Messenger (BBM). BBM works on BlackBerry only. iMessages are on iOS only. So where’s the beef between them? Did Apple take a page from RIM’s playbook? Of course they did. Apple did it with Android when they announced the new notification system. People have been borrowing from each other in this way forever. The similarities drive competition. You may notice that Ford is not the only vehicle on the road. RIM’s lack of innovation is the greatest detriment, not Apple’s iMessages. Remember the BlackBerry Storm that failed miserably? It was RIM’s first attempt at a full touchscreen and was labeled as an “Apple Killer.” So did RIM steal from Apple? Yes, but they did a terrible job at it.

- Carriers. Stumped. Is is the Over The Air (OTA) sync solutions? Did Apple say that most will work only on WiFi? Carriers should spend their energy working on the 4th gen network and achieving ubiquity and closing the gap of The Digital Divide instead of complaining that other companies are cutting cables and going wireless. This makes the carriers even more important to customers. Maybe they should consider unlimited plans again. Maybe the beef is about iMessages and the lack of SMS needed now. What many customers don’t know is that SMS is pure profit for the carriers. They pay nothing for our texts that go across their lines, but they charge us for them. If anything, it can be said that the sending of text messages is helpful to a carrier’s network - I’ll spare you the details about administrative channels in the frequency spectrum and partially full data packets and the injection of SMS messages in the holes creating full packets instead of partially full packets which actually increases efficiency - ever wonder why SMS messages are capped at 160 characters?

Everybody wants Apple to fail, which they had no trouble doing all on their own in the early 1990’s. Microsoft bailed them out with $150million and then Apple created the iPod. Then they revamped the Mac, released the iPhone and then the iPad. They didn’t steal or cheat their way to the top, but make no mistake, they are at the top. Microsoft Windows has looked, basically, the same since Windows 95 (start bar style). BlackBerry has not done anything revolutionary. Android is #2 in the mobile market because they have vision. The fragmentation brought on by the open source mentality will keep them at #2, but they are a good product. It is no secret that they stood on the shoulders of giants when creating their platform. It is what is done. Plain and simple.

So, looking back at the original list. Who is really pissed? Who has a right to be? What were they owed by Apple in the first place?

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Windows Phone 7 Redux - kinda. Ugh. This is an initial reactions video. Not hardcore research or extended usage. I saw it and these were the thoughts I had immediate following. Some may change, get better, get worse, and things might be added. These are PERSONAL opinions.

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I just couldn’t resist talking about the Microsoft/Skype deal

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A little something about me

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Microsoft is just a waste of space.

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First video of 2011. What happened so far and predictions for the year.

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2011 tech predictions

I meant to have this out before the new year hit, but alas, the hectic schedule of the holiday season got the better of me.

  1. 3D TVs have been all the rage lately, from the perspective of the manufacturer. The price of the TVs, price of the glasses, limited content and the fact that you even need glasses have put a damper on sales. The good news is that the proliferation of 3D TVs have driven down the price of standard LED TVs.
    Prediction: 3D disappears this year until the technology is more affordable, usable and universal.
  2. Microsoft capitalizes on the success that is the Kinect (the motion based gaming style for the Xbox 360) and ushers in a new era of gaming (that the Nintendo Wii barely scratched the surface of). Sony releases the Move for the PS3 which gives users something to hold, like the Wii but it is more precise than the Kinect. Users of both platforms are going nuts for these (especially the Kinect, due to its freedom).
    Prediction: More Xbox games show up in the purple case and the entire gaming experience moves towards hands free. You do what? Hold a controller still? Oh, and Steve Ballmer keeps his job.
  3. Users are not only playing with the Kinect; they are ripping it apart. Scores of videos are appearing all over the web showing new uses for the camera/sensor system. Some are recreating images in live 3D renderings and others have created Minority Report style interfaces.
    Prediction: Tom Cruise and a pre-cog run through your backyard while you effortless copy files to pieces of glass with your hands. Interactive displays become a reality.
  4. Apple’s release of a desktop app store shows 1 million downloads in the first day. Their photo editing program, Aperture, sells for $80 as opposed to the $199 retail price on the shelf.
    Prediction: A desktop app store shows up for Windows as well. Software inventories in retail locations begin to thin like the hair on Ballmer’s head.
  5. Tablets are everywhere. First it was the iPad, followed closely by a slew of Android based devices. The battle is now over platform, operating system, and size. 
    Prediction: Many Android based tablets disappear leaving only the cream of the crop. Apple releases iPad 2 in the spring of this year.
  6. Every year since 2007 Apple has shown us a new iPhone. 2007 and 2010 were the 2 biggest iterations. It nearly goes without saying that iPhone 5 will be announced at Worldwide Developers Conference with the release to follow in late June or early July.
    Prediction: The jump in feature set is better than from 3G to 3GS but not nearly as rich as the jump between the 3GS and the iPhone 4.
  7. We are generating more and more data on a consistent basis. Storing and securing that data is becoming more difficult, even with the huge hard drives. Everyone needs redundant backups and accessibility.
    Prediction: Companies and products like Drobo, Netgear ReadyNas and HP MediaSmart drop in price to give redundant RAID arrays for home users and websites like Mozy and Crash Plan become more popular around the web.
  8. Facebook is trying to hold onto its key players. It has been giving out tons of private stock options. The SEC requires them to stay below a certain number of people and shares before forcing them to disclose more details about their finances. Facebook has been holding just below that number.
    Prediction: Facebook can’t afford to stay there anymore. They break the cap, disclose their info, hold an IPO.