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2012 technology predictions

It’s 2012 so that means it is time to post my predictions for the year.

  1. Facebook meets its match. However, Facebook will not die in 2012. This is a planning phase prediction. Whoever will ultimately oust Facebook from the throne of social networking will spring up today and prey on FB’s on vulnerabilities.
  2. Google+ finds its niche. Clearly, G+ does not fit the description to be the victor in the above scenario. However, Google has stuck gold with its Google+ network. The granular control and closed ecosystem blended with the open ability to follow and make connections with “circles” means it has it’s place in the social media world. It will focus on business and niche hobbies/interests for like-minded people to meet each other, where Facebook focuses on people who already know each other.
  3. SOPA changes our life. It goes through in a version not too dissimilar from its current iteration and shuts down a large enough portion of the Internet that people actually notice. Law gets repealed by Summer of 2013 if another Democrat takes office - March, if a Republican steps in.
  4. Microsoft is the Apple of 1997. Windows 7 didn’t do as well as they hoped since it became little more than a huge Vista service pack/patch. Windows 8 on the desktop looks like the phone. People want a desktop to act like a desktop. Windows gains no market share, but actually loses some. 
  5. Sony takes a bath and tries to not become Sega. Xbox is the clear winner here. The next generation consoles make a difference. Sony needs to announce something specific and huge THIS year or Xbox takes the console market for heavy gamers and average gamers. Nintendo keeps the kids.
  6. The shift in TV begins. Linear programming becomes less relevant as more things go online and on demand. Items like Roku, Boxee and AppleTV proliferate this year as prices come down and bandwidth goes up.
  7. Apple settles into life after Steve, and it’s not awesome. The culture won’t change. Cool systems, devices and tons of innovation will prevail. However, without Steve at the helm, things will be different. Just as dedicated, not as magical. Keynotes are less attended/watched. Sales, while high, aren’t as high as before and the mania slips a little. Hopefully they stop the downward trend before it’s too late.
  8. Oh… and JavVig Media, LLC blows up, gets funded, finds a 6x-8x valuation and gets bought. That last one is wishful thinking.

  1. jayvig posted this
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