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2012 technology predictions

It’s 2012 so that means it is time to post my predictions for the year.

  1. Facebook meets its match. However, Facebook will not die in 2012. This is a planning phase prediction. Whoever will ultimately oust Facebook from the throne of social networking will spring up today and prey on FB’s on vulnerabilities.
  2. Google+ finds its niche. Clearly, G+ does not fit the description to be the victor in the above scenario. However, Google has stuck gold with its Google+ network. The granular control and closed ecosystem blended with the open ability to follow and make connections with “circles” means it has it’s place in the social media world. It will focus on business and niche hobbies/interests for like-minded people to meet each other, where Facebook focuses on people who already know each other.
  3. SOPA changes our life. It goes through in a version not too dissimilar from its current iteration and shuts down a large enough portion of the Internet that people actually notice. Law gets repealed by Summer of 2013 if another Democrat takes office - March, if a Republican steps in.
  4. Microsoft is the Apple of 1997. Windows 7 didn’t do as well as they hoped since it became little more than a huge Vista service pack/patch. Windows 8 on the desktop looks like the phone. People want a desktop to act like a desktop. Windows gains no market share, but actually loses some. 
  5. Sony takes a bath and tries to not become Sega. Xbox is the clear winner here. The next generation consoles make a difference. Sony needs to announce something specific and huge THIS year or Xbox takes the console market for heavy gamers and average gamers. Nintendo keeps the kids.
  6. The shift in TV begins. Linear programming becomes less relevant as more things go online and on demand. Items like Roku, Boxee and AppleTV proliferate this year as prices come down and bandwidth goes up.
  7. Apple settles into life after Steve, and it’s not awesome. The culture won’t change. Cool systems, devices and tons of innovation will prevail. However, without Steve at the helm, things will be different. Just as dedicated, not as magical. Keynotes are less attended/watched. Sales, while high, aren’t as high as before and the mania slips a little. Hopefully they stop the downward trend before it’s too late.
  8. Oh… and JavVig Media, LLC blows up, gets funded, finds a 6x-8x valuation and gets bought. That last one is wishful thinking.

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Facebook inserts ads into your Newsfeed. Here’s what it means

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What does your wireless carrier say about you?

Technological zealots, pundits, and old fashioned fanboys will argue which wireless carrier is the best for days on end. They all have reasons to switch and cannot fathom how anyone could betray their preferred carrier by using anything else. Nobody takes into account the most important factor when stating their case, which is - coverage maps. For the most part, all carriers are similarly, each with strong and weak areas. Beyond that, there seems to be some sociology behind the carriers people choose. 

Verizon - the old standby. People with long standing accounts will typically have Verizon. Unlike its competitors it hasn’t been bought, sold, merged, or renamed. It uses a technology called CDMA that is very old, although it has been updated since it was first rolled out. The ancient CDMA in use means that Verizon has had a long, long time to perfect it, which accounts for the best coverage and higher stability. They aren’t known for innovation, but they always work. If you see someone carrying a flip phone, chances are it is Verizon. They also have the best prepaid phones and plans around; if that tells you anything. They are the government bond of carriers. Low risk, low return. Dependable, but boring. 

AT&T - the careless thrill seeker. AT&T throws caution to the wind and tries new things. It’s the college frat guy that says, “It’ll be fine, just try it. And it it’s not, at least it’ll be fun to see what happens. We will deal with the consequences later.” They took to GSM like a kid with new rollerblades on Christmas and looked just about as steady in the beginning. They took Apple’s iPhone and made blind changes to their network to accommodate it when Verizon declined and AT&T signed an exclusivity contract in the process. It paid off overall as the phone revolutionized an industry and became supremely popular, but they pissed off a lot of customers along the way when the data consumption rates crippled their network. Tech geeks go nuts for AT&T (except the “damn the man” open sourcers). They are risky and can usually be seen uttering the famous last words “watch this shit” before they singe their eyebrows. High risk, high return. 

Sprint - the one trick pony. They sell Blackberry to corporations - at least they did when that was what people wanted. Now they are desperately trying to find a new trick. RIM, the creator of Blackberry filed to innovate and put all their eggs in one basket which as Sprint corporate customers relying on their enterprise services. They tried to bolster their market by picking up the blue collar Nextel crowd, but that just fragmented their network across more than one technology. Now, are they CDMA, iDen, Wi-Max or some Frankenstein conglomerate of all of them? Now that the iPhone is flourishing in the enterprise, there’s nothing left. It’s no surprise that Sprint picked up the iPhone and advertises itself as the only carrier offering truly unlimited data. Of course, their network is too slow to worry about consumers’ data consumption making a dent anyway. Sprint is the guy that bet every last dollar on the .com bubble and now lives in his grandmother’s basement looking for a comeback. It’s customers are email hog, road warriors that care about nothing but spreadsheets and metrics and being able to get emails immediately. Physical keyboards, small screens and no apps make this smartphone like the person who sounded smart before they got caught for plagiarism. Never was smart, we just didn’t know any better in the beginning. 

T-Mobile - the tagalong/sidekick (pun intended). T-Mobile has had more names than it has cellular towers over the years. It was the first to enter the “more than a phone” game with the Sidekick which quickly became the security blanket of connected celebrities everywhere. They are known of their cheap plans, lots of minutes, celebrity endorsements, being bought and sold, and the only of the majors without the iPhone. Even the reckless AT&T bailed out of buying them last week. They have nothing going for them. You I will often find their customers shouting about why they area the best and backing it up with reasoning like, “because they are and I pay less than you.” You get what you pay for and if one company is significantly less, it’s no pt because they are doing you a favor; you’re getting less. They were the first with GSM and stopped. They were the first with an Android phone when Google was still a mysterious search engine company that shocked world with rumors of a phone - anyone remember the MyTouch G1? T-Mobile is the kid on the playground that always looks slightly confused, slightly dirty and says things like, “Wait…what? I don’t get it” which often matches their customers. 

Regional carriers - the local specialist. Even the majors had local and national plans and they were separate, once upon a time. Those were the days of roaming charges. Now, any plan worth its salt will be national. Of course, the business model still charges more and calls national roaming a feature. In reality, it’s the standard. So the regional guys are below standard but they come to you like a good natured neighbor who is here to help without all that fancy schmancy stuff the big guys have. You stay local? We have just the plan for you. You almost always pay less and keep your monthly bill down, but look at the cost per minute - its less efficient most of the time. They don’t often offer the latest and greatest hardware, features or speeds, but if you use a small amount of talk time or data and you do it all locally, they’ll be there. Also, they took a page out of the mortgage industry’s play book and waive (or manipulate, skew, or ignore altogether) the credit check. Their customers are the ones raving about their new smartphone that the AT&T geeks recycled 2 revisions ago. They scream about the awesome low price because they’ve never divided it by the number of minutes they actually get. They now get data, but aren’t concerned about speeds. Usually, their phones are in a case bought in a mall kiosk and it looks like a bedazzled threw up on it. 

These are all general statements and mostly tongue in cheek. The customers are unfortunate collateral damage used to describe the one-dimensional nature if the carriers and how we can humanize the carriers to make consumers understand their vision. However, look more closely at the phone and owner. You’ll find that more often than not, I’m right (and I was very nice  and polite with my word choice).

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Facebook rolled out Timeline to users yesterday. Here is why it’s cool

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Louie discusses the Motorola Droid 4 and HP hanging onto WebOS

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UP is down

The Jawbone UP has been making big news. It was even #1 on my list yesterday of top holiday gifts for the tech geek in your life. The week it launched, it was nearly impossible to find on shelves. The UP is a small bracelet that tracks your habits - eating, movement and sleeping. It tells you when you’ve been idle too long and suggests you move. Wear it when you eat and tell the app on your phone how you feel and it will monitor which food make you feel better than others. Set an alarm and it will gently wake you, just befre the alarm time, at the best time in your sleep cycle.

What it doesn’t do, is any of those things over a long period of time, according to reports by consumers. The physical quality of the UP has been debated. People say that it breaks and stops working easily. This is not something we have come to expect from Jawbone at all. All of their products (I own multiple) are sturdy and well constructed. The nature of the UP is a little different in that it is flexible and worn in a more vulnerable spot on the body.

Jawbone, a company with excellent  customer service, has made a bold move to fix the problem and retain their customer. It is a decision that should be applauded. All UP owners are being refunded their money, whether they return the device or not. Not just people who bring it back. Not just people who complain it breaks. ALL purchasers. Jawbone understands it released a product that is not up to its own standards, even though it’s up to standards for some of its owners. 

Customers can get $109 in cash or $150 in Jawbone.com credit while the company works to recreate the up in a way that’ll solve its current problems. Customers just have to promise that they won’t take the money, sell the UP and make a profit, although there’s nothing stopping them from doing that anyway. I would imagine that enough users are thankful enough for Jawbone’s approach that they will abide by the agreement.

So, if you have an UP, get your cash and replace it with the studier version when it releases. If you don’t have one, you definitely should get one, just not yet. I’m glad to see that nobody is attacking Jawbone for this. It is an honest mistake from a reputable company, known for putting out high quality products and that company is making good on the mistake and even going above and beyond. That speaks volumes of the caliber company that Jawbone is.

I’ll be getting a second revision of the UP for sure.

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Twitter updated its twitter.com and tweetdeck client today. Here is a look at what has changed in each as well at the old Tweetdeck for comparison

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Top 10 tech toys for Christmas

It’s that time of year again. The geek in your life has a wishlist so to make shopping easier, here are some items that are sure to be on his or her list. Good luck, Santa.

  1. Jawbone Up
    Price: $99
    The newest innovation from Jawbone (makers of the best bluetooth headsets and speakers; #4 on this list) bring us a new device that inspires healthy living. This small bracelet and app combination tracks your movement, sleep patterns and eating habits. It reminds you to move when you’ve idle too long. It gently (silently) wakes you at the ideal part of your sleep cycle, just before you have to get up so you’re not late for anything. It asks you questions after each meal and learns which meals make you feel best. And with challenges, you can strive to reach new levels in your health
    Website:  http://www.jawbone.com/up
  2. Looxcie 2
    Price: $150
    It’s a wearable video camera, but that’s not all. It sits on your ear like a bluetooth headset. You can also take calls with it. The fun part is that not only can you record your own point of view, but you can broadcast it live so missing family members can feel like they were there. You can also upload short snippets directly to YouTube.
    Website:  http://looxcie.com/device
  3. Apple MacBook Air
    Price: $999 - $1599 (depending on configuration)
    It is super thin and light (under 3 pounds) and fast (1.7GHz dual-core i5) with a unibody construction, fantastic display. If your recipient travels, this is the machine. It is thinner than an iPad in some spots.
    Website:  http://store.apple.com/us/browse/home/shop_mac/family/macbook_air
  4. Jawbone Jambox speaker
    Price: $199
    Another amazing product from Jawbone, the Jambox is 6”x2.25”x1.6” and puts out a whopping 85 decibels of clear, crisp sound. It is small and durable and delivers a music experience in all environments. Beyond that, with its built-in microphone it is also a speakerphone. You can install a variety of apps that will customize your experience. Bluetooth means no wires, but a standard headphone jack is on it as well for those moments when your music player is not bluetooth compatible. Note: my most amazing tech purchase of 2011.
    Website:  http://jawbone.com/speakers/jambox/overview
  5. Apple iPad 2
    Price: $499 - 829 (storage capacity and 3G functionality)
    Everyone know the iPad by now and it is still an amazing device. Some may have expected this higher on the list, but with a reported iPad 3 on the way in spring, real Applephiles will want to wait. With the latest version of iOS allowing for messaging to other iOS devices, multitasking and the thousands of apps available, this gadget has something for everyone.
    Website:  http://www.apple.com/ipad/
  6. Amazon Kindle Fire
    Price: $199
    Amazon released their answer to the iPad recently and it is a 7” tablet. Contrary to popular belief, it is not an iPad competitor, not directly. The fire is not build for productivity or creation. It is for media consumption. If you are giving gifts to a tech geek that loves music, movies and books the best then this is the device for you. With 5,000 books on loan from Amazon and 10,000+ movies available instantly, all for a $79 Amazon Prime subscription (which as other benefits while shopping, such as free 2-day shipping), the Kindle Fire is the go to device for media, without a doubt. Naturally it includes web browsing and email functionality as well. All content is stored in the cloud so you never have to worry about being without it.
    Website:  http://www.amazon.com/Kindle-Fire-Amazon-Tablet/dp/B0051VVOB2
  7. Kinect for Xbox 360
    Price: $149
    The motion sensor add-on may have come out in 2010, but it is still a hot item in 2011 with an expanding library of games becoming available. This will get you off the couch and test your ability to dance, run, jump, and play a dozen or more sports. It sure is one way to work off all the fruitcake you’ve been eating. It is a surefire hit at parties as well. There is no controller. YOU are the controller with full body and voice control.
    Website:  http://www.xbox.com/en-US/kinect
  8. Apple TV
    Price: $99
    If you are an Apple fan and a movie/music fan, this is for you. For the price, you can stream your entire iTunes music library to your TV, push media and your actual home screen from an iPhone or iPad, rent TV shows and movies from the iTunes store, gain access to YouTube, Netflix, Flickr, and many other services. All that is required is a power cord, HDMI cable and an Internet connection (wired or wireless, with built-in WiFi).
    Website: http://www.apple.com/appletv/
  9. Boxee Live TV
    Price: $50
    Want to cut the cord with the cable company? The Boxee Live TV takes a plain antenna signal and connects to your TV so you can still catch all the live broadcasts that you don’t want to miss. Instead of a guide, there is an interface that will help you find shows and recommendations and remove channels you never watch.
    Website: http://www.boxee.tv/live
  10. Lytro Camera
    Price: $400-$500
    This super-advanced tiny camera is not much bigger than a lady’s lipstick, but does much, much more. It’s a new type of camera called a Light Field shooter. It captures color, intensity and vector direction of the light rays - to the tune of 11 million of them. And here’s the really exciting news, you can focus after you’ve taken it.
    Website: https://www.lytro.com/camera
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Facebook and Mark Zuckerberg own up to privacy mistakes

Anyone who has been online or on Facebook for a minute during the last few years will remember one thing. Facebook changes… a lot. Whether it’s tagging or photos or the newsfeed or privacy, there’s one thing Facebook does well and that’s change. The general public complains anytime there’s a change and then a few weeks later can’t remember what the old version looked like. The one area that seems to garner more complaints than others and the type that persist is privacy.

Privacy has been a big issue for a long time. People are sharing more and more and they are doing it faster. They rate at which they share and the amount they share is at the highest it has ever been and it’s increasing. It’s actually accelerating. And it will continue to with the advent of new technologies and the embedding of social networking into phones and tablets, etc. I know I’ve complained about it as well.

I use no privacy on my personal Facebook account - go look. It’s wide open. I have nothing to hide. Beyond that, I don’t trust Facebook to get it right (it’s not entirely their fault and I’ll explain why). Anyway, I am my own privacy. If I don’t want the world to know about it, I don’t say it. Plain and simple. Can’t break that privacy.

Facebook is at the forefront of this space - social networking. If you are leading the pack with no map, it’s easy to get lost. And they have. Mark Zuckerberg posted a blog today about how they always have been, are now, and will continue to be committed to privacy. He did, however, admit to making some mistakes along the way. That’s to be expected. They embrace every new technology and are quick to implement things to make their service better. There will be collateral damage along the way.

One shining example of a mistake was Beacon from a few years ago. It sent data from external websites to Facebook to target ads for people. Things you would do on some websites would appear in your Facebook newsfeed. It wasn’t malicious. It was a failed attempt to customize your experience. Today, Mark Zuckerberg said that Beacon was a mistake.

They have, in the last year to 18 months, given very granular control to individuals over privacy. They have made it easy to see what you are sharing and with whom and have total control over it. It’s different than it used to be and requires some work set it up initially, but once that is complete, it’s simple to continue the process and make minor changes to it. That doesn’t seem to be enough for people, or even for Facebook.

Today, they announced two new officer positions in the company. Chief Privacy Officer, Policy and Chief Privacy Officer, Products. These 2 people (good choices, by the way) will ensure that privacy and the ability to control it is baked into the product and all ensuing new products rather than added later in a way that is counterintuitive.

Facebook, like Twitter and Google, is also working with the Federal Trade Commission. They are working to establish agreements and standardize privacy efforts. This is not lip service from the Facebook team. They believe that if you offer people privacy and the ability to control it, then they will find comfort in the service and share more. It’s also not a bait and switch. People who feel unsafe will share nothing. People who do feel safe will share everything, specifically with who they choose to share it with.

I’ll share everything with everybody. My life is not exciting enough to be worth hiding in the first place.

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Squashing the rumors about PROOF that people know what is coming next for iOS devices